俄罗斯领导人弗拉基米尔·普京已指示军方评估新的进攻行动的选择，包括对基辅的潜在袭击。 According to Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, a strike from the Bryansk region toward the Chernihiv region remains the most probable scenario.
Speaking in an interview with TSN on June 30, Syrskyi explained that Putin previously instructed the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces to calculate multiple pathways for a renewed offensive, including potential operations launched from Belarusian territory aimed at capturing the capital and its surrounding areas.
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在安全风险不断上升的情况下，乌克兰当局宣布从 7 月 1 日起对切尔尼戈夫地区 12 个边境定居点进行强制疏散，同时延长了对冬季最初清理的另外 7 个定居点的疏散令。
"Considering recent events, I do not think that the leadership of Belarus will dare to provide the aggressor with its territory to use as a staging ground for conducting an offensive operation. At the same time, we are taking such an option into account," Syrskyi said.
总司令指出，目前的数据表明，行动很有可能从俄罗斯布良斯克地区直接进入切尔尼戈夫地区。
这种演习的主要目标是扩大现役前线并夺取更多领土，从而迫使乌克兰武装部队将防御部队从其他关键地区转移。
Addressing the logistical challenges of a renewed northern push from Belarus, Syrskyi highlighted that the terrain presents extreme difficulties for heavy military equipment due to extensive marshlands.
此外，沿着切尔诺贝利方向，地理位置有利于乌克兰的防御，因为河岸的乌克兰一侧海拔较高。